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砂岩油田占我国油田总数的80％以上,因石油是油田中的有限资源,国内外都很重视油田产量的变化,关心已投入开发的油田原油产量的预测。研究砂岩油田产量的预测问题,主要的目的是为了满足有关部门近期或中远期产量的变化和产量近似值的判断,在编制有关计划和安排各方工作时予以参考。 技术进步对于开发油田的速度和提高采收率都有较大的影响,对于未来的预测没有包括技术进步的因素,在油田上采用了新技术并取得明显效果以后,其产量比预测的高,因此,自那以后的产量需要重新进行预测,以期更加接近实际一些。这种情况的产生,是因为我们所采用的预测的方法中“对于信息的定义和性质不作任何事先的假设,是从实际情况——现在指的是数据序列——里面找出信息来,这样看待信息可以说是偏于唯象的”。
Sandstone oilfields account for more than 80% of the total oilfields in our country. Because oil is a limited resource in oilfields, both domestic and overseas pay great attention to the changes in oilfield production and are concerned about the prediction of crude oil output that has been put into development. To study the prediction of sandstone oilfield production, the main purpose is to meet the short-term and medium-term changes in output and output of the relevant departments to determine the approximate value, in the preparation of plans and arrangements for all parties to work for reference. The technological progress has a great influence on the speed of oilfield development and oil recovery. For the future, the forecast does not include the factors of technological progress. After adopting new technologies and achieving obvious results, the output of oilfields is higher than predicted. Therefore, since then the output needs to be re-forecasting, in order to be closer to the actual number. The situation arises because the method of prediction we employ “without any prior assumption of the definition and nature of the information is to find out the information from the actual situation - now referring to the data sequence - To treat information can be said to be partial to the phenomenon. ”