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本文以历年的气象资料和发病记录为依据 ,用相关分析和多元回归的方法 ,建立起了柑桔春梢疮痂病的长期和中期预报模型 :Yl=75 .2 + 1.6T12f- 6 .5 (T12m ∨T12l) - 1.3T12m - 0 .5T12lYm =6 8.3+ 1.5T12f- 6 .5 (T12m ∨T12l) - 2 .7│T3f- 7.1│这两个预报模型的历史拟合率均达 10 0 % ,经 4年的应用验证 ,结果均与实际相符
Based on the meteorological data and records of the past years, the paper established the long-term and medium-term forecast models of the spring scab in the citrus by means of correlation analysis and multiple regression: Yl = 75.2 + 1.6T12f- 6.5 ( T12m ∨T12l) -1.3T12m -0.5T12lYm = 6 8.3+ 1.5T12f- 6.5 (T12m ∨T12l) -2.7│T3f- 7.1│The historical fitting rates of these two forecast models all reach 100% , After 4 years of application verification, the results are consistent with the actual