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本文以风险资本筹集为研究情境检验“飞向品质”假说。以2000年至2011年间筹集的1162个风险投资基金为样本,使用logit模型,本文的检验结果表明:风险投资机构在宏观经济处于高增长期或扩张期时筹集早期基金的可能性显著地高于低增长期或衰退期;在高增长期或扩张期时筹集高科技基金的可能性显著地高于低增长期或衰退期;在高增长期或扩张期时首次筹集基金的可能性显著地高于低增长期或衰退期。上述结论支持“飞向品质”假说,意味着宏观经济环境变动所引起的投资者投资偏好变化会影响风险投资机构的筹资行为。
This paper takes venture capital raising as the research hypothesis of “flight to quality”. Taking the 1162 venture capital funds raised from 2000 to 2011 as a sample and using the logit model, the test results of this paper show that venture capital firms are significantly more likely to raise early-stage funds when the macroeconomy is in a period of high growth or expansion Low growth period or recession period; the probability of raising high-tech funds during the high growth period or expansion period is significantly higher than the low growth period or the recession period; and the probability of raising funds for the first time during the high growth period or expansion period is significantly higher In the low growth period or recession. The above conclusion supports the “flight to quality” hypothesis, which means that the change of investor’s investment preferences caused by the macroeconomic environment will affect the fund-raising behavior of venture capital institutions.