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本课题首次运用虚拟变量多元回归分析原理,研究出一种以边坡表层工程地质条件为变量,以“一场连续实效降雨量”作为边坡抗洪能力指标的汛期土质边坡塌方预报方法。在研究过程中对全国范围内业已发生的一千多个塌方工点进行调查,室内对3万多个数据进行数理统计计算,得出了“全国铁路边坡抗洪能力评分表”并提出了警戒雨量的确定方法。此方法的应用效果已在一些铁路局得到了证实。使人们对汛期土质边坡塌方进行区段和工点“时空联合预报”的愿望成为现实,并从理论上为工务部门制定防洪抢险工作程序和路基边坡防洪资金及时间安排计划提供了科学依据。
For the first time, this project uses the principle of multivariate regression analysis of virtual variables to develop a prediction method for landslide prediction of soil slope in flood season based on the engineering geological conditions of the slope surface as a variable and “one continuous effective rainfall” as the indicator of slope anti-flood capability. During the course of the study, more than a thousand collapsible work sites have been surveyed across the country. Based on mathematical statistics of more than 30,000 indoor data, a “National Railroad Slope Anti-Flood Ability Scoring Table” was put forward and a warning was given Method of determining rainfall. The application effect of this method has been confirmed by some railway administrations. It has become a reality for people to realize the joint prediction of time and space of landslide of soil slope in flood season and provide a scientific basis for the engineering department to make flood control and rescue work program and flood control fund and schedule of subgrade slope .