论文部分内容阅读
土地利用/土地覆被变化改变土壤呼吸条件,进而对土壤有机碳储量变化产生影响,而土壤有机碳储量则是影响农业可持续发展和全球碳平衡领域的重要因素。以上海市崇明岛为例,运用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics Model)预测2020、2030年土地利用需求变化,结合CLUE-S模型(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent Model)得出各种用地类型的空间分布,并引用碳密度法估算三种发展幕景下土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量的影响。结果表明:2030年三种发展幕景土壤有机碳储量分别为:低速发展幕景为3 093.03×106kg,惯性发展幕景为3 079.47×106kg,高速发展幕景为3 059.81×106kg;研究期内土壤有机碳储量呈现缓慢下降趋势,但人类活动对其扰动较小;SD和CLUE-S耦合模型可以从时间和空间两方面对土壤有机碳储量进行模拟,具有可行性;建议通过加强城镇用地集约利用、农田保护、林地建设来减少人为活动对土壤有机碳储量的影响。
Changes in land use / land cover change soil respiration conditions, which in turn have an impact on changes in soil organic carbon stocks, while soil organic carbon stocks are important factors affecting the sustainable development of agriculture and global carbon balance. Taking Chongming Island in Shanghai as an example, the system dynamics model (System Dynamics Model) was used to predict the changes of land use demand in 2020 and 2030, and the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent model The spatial distribution of land use types and the carbon density method were used to estimate the impact of land use change on soil organic carbon storage under the three development scenarios. The results showed that the soil organic carbon storage of the three development scenarios in 2030 were: the low-speed development scene was 3 093.03 × 106 kg, the inertial development scene was 3 079.47 × 106 kg, and the high-speed development scene was 3 059.81 × 106 kg. During the study period Soil organic carbon storage showed a slowly decreasing trend but little disturbance from human activities. SD and CLUE-S coupled model could simulate soil organic carbon storage both in time and space, which is feasible. It is suggested that by strengthening urban land intensive Use, farmland protection and construction of forestland to reduce the impact of human activities on soil organic carbon storage.