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首先分析了相对资源承载力模型存在的不足,即未考虑各类资源间的匹配以及权重取值过于主观,并对其进行了改进。然后应用改进后的模型对新疆1978—2008年可持续发展情况进行了实证分析,研究表明:①1978—2008年,新疆相对耕地资源承载力最大,其次是耕地和经济资源均衡承载力,经济资源承载力最弱;②新疆的相对综合承载力和过剩人口1978—2000年呈递增趋势,而2001—2008年处于逐渐恢复和扩张的态势;③新疆人口目前仍处于过剩状态。同时比较分析了模型改进前后的实证结果,并对新疆人口的可持续发展提出了一些建议。
First of all, it analyzes the shortcomings of the relative resource carrying capacity model, that is, it does not consider the match between the various types of resources and the weight value is too subjective, and it is improved. Then, the improved model is used to make an empirical analysis of the sustainable development in Xinjiang from 1978 to 2008. The results show that: ① From 1978 to 2008, the relative carrying capacity of arable land in Xinjiang was the largest, followed by the balanced bearing capacity of arable land and economic resources and the economic resources ② The relative comprehensive carrying capacity and surplus population in Xinjiang showed an increasing trend from 1978 to 2000, while the situation of gradually recovering and expanding from 2001 to 2008; ③ The population of Xinjiang is still in surplus. At the same time, the empirical results before and after the improvement of the model are compared and analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward for the sustainable development of Xinjiang’s population.