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1.莫尔先生和太太有五个孩子,都是女儿。莫尔太太:我多么希望我们下一个孩子不再是女孩啊!莫尔先生:亲爱的,五个女孩了,下一个肯定是男孩。他说得对吗?2.许多玩轮盘赌的玩家认为,他们等轮盘转到很多次红色数字后,在黑色数字上下赌注,他们就能赢。这种玩法可行吗?3.嘟拉拉认为你在一轮掷骰子中已掷出五次两点,那么你下一轮再掷出两点的概率低于1/6。他说得对吗?4.如果你对以上任何一个问题的答案是肯定的话,那么你就陷入了所谓“赌徒的谬误”陷阱。在上述每一种情况中下一个事件与之前所有的事件之间毫无关系。
1. Mr. Moll and his wife have five children, all daughters. Mrs. More: How do I hope our next child will no longer be a girl! Mr. More: Dear, five girls, the next is definitely a boy. Is he right? 2. Many players who play roulette think they can win after they wait for the roulette to go red many times and bet on the black numbers. Is this game possible? 3. Talara thinks you have thrown two points five times in one round of dice, and then the probability of you throwing two more points in the next round is less than 1/6. Is he right? 4. If you answered yes to any of these questions, you fall into the trap of a so - called “gambler ’s fallacy.” In either case, the next event has nothing to do with all the previous events.