通过研究影响文献增长的因素,尤其是研究涉及学科类别对文献增长的影响,构建了动态logistic模型描述某领域文献增长规律。通过计算模型特征点,研究文献增长的三个阶段及各阶段文献增长量,并基于中国知网我国网络舆情研究文献统计数据(2000-2011)验证了模型,为文献情报分析与预测提供参考。 By studying the factors influencing the growth of the literature, especially the research on the impact of subject categories on the growth of the literature, a dynamic logistic model is constructed to describe the law of literature growth in a certain field. By calculating the characteristic points of the model, this paper studies the three stages of literature growth and the amount of literature growth in each stage, and verifies the model based on the literature of China’s online public opinion research (2000-2011), which provides reference for the literature analysis and prediction.