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目前在平行航路碰撞风险研究中,通常会忽略人为因素的影响。为更系统地研究平行航路的碰撞风险,提高碰撞风险值计算的准确性,先分析航路飞行特点找出陆空通话下平行航路中人因可靠性的影响因素;然后考虑人与人交互的过程,改进传统的认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM),构建平行航路中人因可靠性的计算模型。根据Brooker思想,建立并分析纵向、垂直、侧向3种平行航路碰撞风险模型。将所建模型应用于三亚区管中心。结果表明,陆空通话下某平行航路的碰撞风险值小于国际规定的安全目标水平,进而说明该模型可用于平行航路碰撞风险的研究。
At present, the impact of human factors is usually neglected in the study of collision risk of parallel routes. In order to study the collision risk of parallel routes more systematically and improve the accuracy of collision risk calculation, we first analyze the characteristics of the flight routes to find out the influencing factors of human reliability in parallel routes under land-to-air calls and then consider the process of human-to-human interaction , Improve the traditional method of cognitive reliability and error analysis (CREAM), and build a computational model of human reliability in parallel routes. According to Brooker’s thought, three collision risk models of vertical, vertical and lateral parallel routes are established and analyzed. The model is applied to Sanya district control center. The results show that the collision risk value of a parallel route under land-air call is less than the international safety target level, which shows that the model can be used to study the collision risk of parallel routes.