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社会经济系统发展的不同阶段不断受到新的对策、政策、规划、项目作用力的作用,为实现高效发展,迫切需要一种新的系统科学方法,有效揭示系统发展的受力产生的直接效应、部门间延迟效应及整体延迟效应。本文将系统动力学因果链理论及图论的树理论结合,新建立系统受力不考虑反馈作用的因果链出树,进行因果链分类,分析不同因果链出树中的直接作用枝、部门延迟传递效应枝、平衡发展效果枝,揭示出各受力的系统发展的直接效应、部门间延迟效应、持续发展的整体延迟效应。并以当前中国农村新医改五大对策实施效应实例对此方法进行了有效应用,提出了对策实施的直接效应、延迟效应及整体效应分析的新思路和技术。这种方法将对仿真分析有重要作用。
The different stages of the development of the socio-economic system are constantly under the influence of new countermeasures, policies, programs and project forces. In order to achieve efficient development, there is an urgent need for a new systematic and scientific method to effectively reveal the direct effects of the force of system development. Delay between departments and the overall delay effect. In this paper, we combine the theory of causal chain of system dynamics with the tree theory of graph theory to establish a new causal chain out of the system that does not consider the feedback effect and classify causal chains. The direct effects of different causal chains are analyzed. The transfer of the effect of the branch, the balance of the development of the effect of branches, revealing the forces of the direct effects of system development, inter-sectoral delay effect, the overall development of sustained delay effect. This method has been effectively applied to the five examples of the effect of new medical reform in rural China, and some new ideas and techniques of direct effect, delay effect and overall effect analysis are put forward. This method will play an important role in simulation analysis.