在国人陶醉于资本市场的又一次盛宴之际,全球的汇率战阴影已经日渐逼近。为了尽早刺激经济复苏、降低失业,美国再度祭出数量宽松货币政策的法宝,以增大货币供应、拉低利率。其刺激实体经济的效果如何不得而知,但美股持续大涨、美元迅即走低,却是立竿见影,并进一步推动全球股市普涨、资源价格飙升。大部分增发的美元并不在本土逗留,而是全球游弋,寻找获利机会。其派生副作用极为显著:欧元、日元和各大新兴经济体的货币兑美元不断升值,严重影响这些国家的出口竞争力;国际资本汹涌冲击各个资本市场,资产泡沫风险日益累积。作为应对之策,控制资本流动、干预汇率令本币贬值等措施已经提上到各国的议程,日本甚至有意重启数量宽松货币政策。这不是“货币战争”的阴谋。相反,这是各国出于各自理性的选择,连国际货币基金组织总裁斯特劳斯一卡恩也不得不承认,各国汇率竞相贬值有一定的合理性。但是,个体理性的结果,却是集体非理性。一旦汇率战端开始,全球各国的资产市场、世界贸易和经济复苏都将面临灾难性的后果。对此,各国能否同舟共济、共渡难关?中国又是否做好了应对的准备?本刊特刊出此专题,并持续关注和探讨这一足以影响未来世界经济格局的问题。 As the people revel in the capital market, another feast, the shadow of the global exchange rate war has been gradually approaching. In order to stimulate economic recovery as soon as possible and reduce unemployment, the United States once again resorted to a number of magic weapons of loose monetary policy to increase the money supply and drive down interest rates. The effect of stimulating the real economy is unclear. However, with the stock market rising sharply and the U.S. dollar rapidly falling, it is immediate and further boosting global stock market surges and soaring prices of resources. Most of the additional U.S. dollar does not stay in the country, but the global cruise, looking for profit opportunities. Its derivative side effects are remarkable: the continuous appreciation of the euro, the yen and the currencies of the major emerging economies against the U.S. dollar has seriously affected the export competitiveness of these countries; the surge of international capital has hit various capital markets and the risk of asset bubbles has become increasingly accumulated. As a countermeasure, measures such as controlling the flow of capital and intervening the exchange rate to depreciate the local currency have been put on the agenda of various countries, and Japan even intends to restart the quantitative easing monetary policy. This is not a conspiracy of “currency war”. On the contrary, these are the countries’ rational choices. Even Strauss-Kahn, the president of the International Monetary Fund, can not but admit that there is some rationality for the devaluation of exchange rates in various countries. However, the result of individual rationality is collective irrationality. Once the exchange rate war begins, the asset markets, world trade and economic recovery of all countries in the world will face catastrophic consequences. In this regard, whether countries can work together to weather the storm and whether China is prepared to deal with this issue of special issue of this feature, and continue to focus on and explore this enough to affect the future economic situation in the world.