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从基于风险管理应对气候变化的基本理论框架和气候变化对我国自然保护区管理的挑战出发,明确了自然保护区气候变化风险的涵义,并以达里诺尔自然保护区鸟类及其赖以生存的水体、草地、林地、沼泽地生境为研究对象,对达里诺尔自然保护区气候变化风险及其变化趋势进行评估和预测.结果表明:1997—2010年,达里诺尔自然保护区及其水体、草地、林地、沼泽地生境的气候变化风险均呈明显的波动性变化趋势,1999、2001、2005、2008年保护区及其4类生境和2002、2004年沼泽地生境均处于风险状态;与2010年相比,情景A、B、C下2020、2030年保护区及其4类生境的气候变化风险均有所增强;各类生境的气候变化风险存在显著差异,其中,沼泽地生境的气候变化风险较为突出,与其对气候变化的敏感性和丰富的鸟类分布密切相关;人类对水资源、草地资源的过度利用会加剧气候变化对自然保护区的不利影响及其对应的生态风险.总体上,气候变化风险在达里诺尔自然保护区已经显现,气候变化风险管理有助于保持并增强自然保护区的生物多样性保护功能.
From the basic theoretical framework of risk management to tackle climate change and the challenge of climate change to the management of natural reserves in China, the author defines the meaning of climate change risk in nature reserves and relies on the survival of birds in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve , The grassland, woodland and swamp habitat of Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, the risk and its changing trend of climate change in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve were evaluated and predicted.The results show that from 1997 to 2010, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its water body , And the risk of climate change in grassland, woodland and marsh habitat all showed the obvious trend of fluctuation. In 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, the habitats of protected areas and their 4 types of habitats and the wetland habitats of 2002 and 2004 were both at risk. Compared with 2010, the risk of climate change in protected areas and four habitats in 2020 and 2030 under scenarios A, B and C are all enhanced. The risks of climate change in all habitats are significantly different. Among them, the climate in wetland habitats The risk of change is more prominent, which is closely related to its sensitivity to climate change and abundant bird distribution. Excessive utilization of water resources and grassland resources by human beings will aggravate the climate In general, the risk of climate change has emerged in the Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, and climate change risk management helps to maintain and enhance the conservation of biodiversity in nature reserves .