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为评价公路网络系统震后功能保障能力,基于Monte Carlo(MC)模拟方法建立了路网震后连通可靠度和交通量通行时间分析模型。采用地震易损性曲线表示道路和桥梁的地震破坏状态及其对应的概率;采用道路和桥梁破坏状态对应的连通性、行车速度、通行能力折减系数,表示道路和桥梁结构地震破坏产生的路段通行能力下降;考虑道路和桥梁结构地震破坏不确定性,采用MC方法模拟路段通行能力下降后的路网震后功能。在每次MC抽样计算中,采用宽度优先搜索算法判别路网连通性,采用增量分配算法进行路网静态交通量分配,得到路网整体通行时间。以多次MC模拟计算的路网连通可靠度和通行时间均值,表示路网的震后通行状态,通过算例分析了路网连通性和通行时间分析模型的特点及其适用性。结果表明:路段震后通行能力下降是造成震后路网整体通行时间增加的主要原因,低连通可靠度节点的震后通行时间较高,增加路网交通流量服务供给点(源点)可以提升路网的震后保障能力;连通可靠度分析模型适用于路网参数较少情况下的初步分析;交通流量通行时间分析模型,考虑了路段的交通流通行属性和路网OD交通量参数,可提供较为精确的分析结果。
In order to evaluate the functional supportability of highway network system after earthquake, a model based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation was established to analyze the reliability of road network connectivity and traffic flow time. Seismic vulnerability curves of roads and bridges are used to represent the earthquake damage states and corresponding probabilities of the roads and bridges; the linkages, traffic speeds and traffic capacity reduction factors corresponding to the damaged states of roads and bridges are used to represent the road sections resulting from the earthquake damage of roads and bridges The traffic capacity is declining. Considering the uncertainty of the earthquake damage to the road and bridge structure, the MC method is used to simulate the post-earthquake earthquaking function of the road after its traffic capacity is reduced. In each MC sampling calculation, the width-first search algorithm is used to determine the connectivity of the road network, and the incremental distribution algorithm is used to allocate the static traffic volume on the road network to obtain the overall transit time of the road network. The reliability of the road network connection and the mean time of passage are calculated by multiple MC simulations to show the post-earthquake passing status of the road network. The characteristics and applicability of the road network connectivity and traffic time analysis model are analyzed through an example. The results show that the decrease of traffic capacity after the earthquake is the main reason for the increase of the overall traffic time after the earthquake. The low connectivity reliability node has higher post-earthquake transit time, which increases the traffic supply point (source point) of road network traffic. Road network after the earthquake protection ability; connectivity reliability analysis model for road network parameters less cases of initial analysis; traffic flow transit time analysis model, taking into account the traffic flow properties of road sections and road network OD traffic parameters can be Provide more accurate analysis results.