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正确分析并准确预测飞行系统安全状况趋势,对预防、减少飞行事故具有重大现实意义。飞行系统中的四个子系统“人、机、环、管”的状态与飞行安全状况密切相关。鉴于系统的整体性、相关性、有序性、动态性及各子系统相互关系的不确定性,难以对飞行系统安全状况做出精确描述和预测,唯一有效处理方法是定性和定量相结合的综合集成分析方法。本文提出一种运用模糊关系合成原理,通过对某飞行系统历年统计数据定性、定量集成分析评估,预测飞行系统安全状况趋势。该方法可操作性强,且准确率较高。
Correctly analyzing and accurately forecasting the trend of the flight system safety status has great practical significance for preventing and reducing flight accidents. The four subsystems of the flight system “people, machines, rings, tubes” are closely related to flight safety status. In view of the system’s integrity, relevance, orderliness, dynamism and the uncertainties of the interrelationship between the subsystems, it is difficult to accurately describe and predict the flight system security situation. The only effective treatment is the combination of qualitative and quantitative Integrated and integrated analysis. In this paper, a method of fuzzy relationship synthesis is proposed to predict the flight system safety status by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing and evaluating the statistical data of a certain flight system over the years. The method is easy to operate and has high accuracy.