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◆2011年国内强麦期价即使有国家政策的支撑,也难独善其身,期价全线下跌,远期合约呈贴水态势。展望明年行情,在国内粮食生产稳步增加、欧债危机短期内无望解决的背景下,强麦难现单边上涨行情。◆对于国内粮食供需态势的脆弱平衡而言,动态供需状况的不确定性、美联储QE3的可预期性以及在国内货币适度宽松将成为现实的支撑下,强麦期价也难以单边下跌,尤其是国家政策的力挺使得强麦期价的底部已然确立。◆2012年度强麦期价将呈现区间波动特征。
◆ In 2011, the domestic ale period price is hard to be benefited even if supported by the national policy. The price of the domestic barley plunged across the board and the forward contract was in a premium situation. Prospects for next year’s market, the steady increase in domestic food production, the European debt crisis is hopeless to solve the context of the short term, ale is difficult to unilateral rise. ◆ For the fragile balance of the domestic food supply and demand situation, the uncertainty of the dynamic supply and demand situation, the predictability of the Federal Reserve QE3 and the modest easing of domestic currency will become a reality, it is also difficult for the ale season price to fall unilaterally. In particular, The strong national policy has made the bottom of the ale period already established. ◆ 2012 season wheat price will show the characteristics of range fluctuations.