全球能源利用已经过两次大转换,现在要进行第三次能源大转换。前两次能源大转换的脉络很清楚,第一次从薪柴转换到煤炭,第二次从煤炭转换成石油、天然气,还包括电力的使用。前两次能源大转换都非常顺利,这是因为煤炭、石油、天然气的资源非常充足,后者足以替代前者,且后者能量密度都比前者高,在安全、稳定、清洁、经济方面都超过前者,能源技术的发展也能够跟得上能源转换的需要。可是第三次能源大转换情况完全不同,替代资源不充足,替代能源的能量密度极低,安全、稳定、经济都不及 Global energy use has been two major conversion, and now the third major energy conversion. The context of the first two major energy conversions is clear. The first shift from fuelwood to coal and the second from coal to oil and natural gas also included the use of electricity. The first two major energy conversions are very smooth, because coal, oil, natural gas resources are sufficient, the latter enough to replace the former, and the latter energy density than the former, in the safe, stable, clean, economic than The former, the development of energy technology can also keep up with the need of energy conversion. However, the third major energy conversion situation is completely different, insufficient alternative resources, alternative energy energy density is extremely low, safe, stable and economically less