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中国经济目前位于高储蓄、低消费的发展路径,如何安排合适的经济转型路径,使得经济走向长期最优均衡,具有重要的现实意义.然而,由于经济系统的复杂性,人们很难运用基于受控对象精确信息的控制方法来设计合理的增长路径.自抗扰控制(ADRC)是一种独立于模型的误差反馈控制方法,其自然地反映了理性人的决策思维.本文首先对比了当经济增长模型的均衡解存在显示表达式时,运用ADRC与最优控制这两种不同方法所取得的控制效果.研究表明,ADRC有助于合理安排经济发展路径以降低效用损失.如果再考虑到经济周期、技术进步等因素对经济带来的影响,此时通过最优控制方法就只能获得均衡解的稳态值.本文以稳态资本存量作为参考目标,运用ADRC对此进行分析.结果表明,ADRC仍然可以给出较优的经济发展路径,使得经济在“稳与快”间保持平衡,引导经济走向长期稳态均衡.
However, due to the complexity of the economic system, it is very difficult for people to apply the method based on the experience of high-savings and low-consumption development. However, due to the complexity of the economic system, Control object precise information control method to design a reasonable growth path ADRC is a model-independent error feedback control method, which naturally reflects the rational people’s decision-making thinking.This paper first compared the economic The Equilibrium Solution to Growth Model The control effects obtained by using ADRC and optimal control in the presence of explicit expressions show that ADRC helps to rationalize the path of economic development in order to reduce the loss of utility. Cycle, technological progress and other factors on the economy, this time through the optimal control method can only get the steady state value of the equilibrium solution.In this paper, steady-state capital stock as a reference target, using ADRC to analyze this result shows , ADRC can still give a better path of economic development and keep the economy in balance between “stable and fast” and lead the economy to long-term stability State equilibrium.