论文部分内容阅读
本文应用时间序列分析方法对河北医学院附属第四医院９年来急诊抢救人次的月变化规律进行了研究，配合了趋势季节模型，并作了回顾性和前瞻性两方面的验证。结果表明：模型拟合较好，观察值基本上都落在９５％的预测范围之内，从而为加强急诊工作的日常管理、增强预见性提供了有效的统计学手段。
In this paper, we study the monthly variation of emergency resuscitation trips in the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Hebei Medical College in the past nine years with the help of time series analysis method, and with the trend season model, and make a retrospective and prospective two-way verification. The results show that the model fitting is good, and the observation value basically falls within the range of 95% of the prediction range, thus providing an effective statistical method for strengthening the routine management of emergency work and enhancing the predictability.