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文章以南方集体林区为研究对象,选择交通密度值作为交通基础设施的代理变量,并基于2003~2013年的面板数据运用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)方法实证检验了交通密度值对林业发展的影响。研究发现:交通密度值每增加1%,林业总产值将增加2.617%,森林面积则减少0.176%;以2012~2013为例,发现南方集体林区交通密度值的变化能够解释同期林业总产值变化的46.798%,解释同期森林面积变化的20.871%。因此,如何平衡地区交通基础设施发展带来的正面的林业经济增长效益和负面的林业生态环境破坏问题,将是未来需要重点研究关注的内容。
Taking the southern collective forest area as the research object, the traffic density value is selected as the proxy variable of the transportation infrastructure. Based on the panel data from 2003 to 2013, the method of three-stage least squares (3SLS) is used to empirically test the effect of traffic density on the development of forestry Impact. The results show that for every 1% increase in traffic density, the total output value of forestry will increase by 2.617% and the forest area will decrease by 0.176%. Taking 2012 ~ 2013 as an example, it is found that the change of traffic density value in the southern collective forest area can explain the changes of the total output value of forestry Of 46.798%, explaining 20.871% of the change of forest area in the same period. Therefore, how to balance the positive forestry economic growth benefit brought by the development of transport infrastructure and the negative destruction of forestry eco-environment in the region will be the focus of future research.