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Completing the “first year of furthering China’s economic reform”in 2014， China heralded 2015 as the “decisive year of deepening reform” as it marks the end of its 12th Five-Year Plan （2011-15） for general social and economic development while comprehensively accelerating the plan to “rule the country by law.”
In March 2015， China will witness its annual “two sessions” of the National People’s Congress （NPC） and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference （CPPCC）， which will review major issues concerning the national economy and social development and promulgate a series of policies for future development in China， the world’s second largest economy.
What will be the hot topics of the two sessions？ What results do people most want to see？ We’d like to share a few of our predictions.
. Economic Reform under “New Normal”
In 2014， China saw an increase of 7.4 percent of its GDP over 2013 – the slowest growth rate in the last 24 years. Three international institutions， World Bank， International Monetary Fund， and Asian Development Bank， agree that China will further slow its pace of economic growth in 2015 due to several factors such as the deceleration of credit， loan and investment growth and cooling of the real estate market.
Despite the fact that Chinese economy has entered a “new normal” stage characterized by a shift from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth， it has undoubtedly started a more steady， sustainable transformation through structural reform.
With regards to economic reform， suggestions by deputies to the two sessions may focus on how to implement development strategy driven by innovation and how to hasten the adjustment of the economic structure.
. Accelerating “Rule of Law”
The approach of “ruling the country by law” was upgraded to a new stage at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in October 2014.
Ma Huaide， vice president of China University of Political Science and Law， asserts that 2015 will see the launch of the country’s first round of comprehensively promoting the “rule of law” campaign， which could bring measures of reform in realms of legislation， judicial administration， and law enforcement. Stress on judicial reform will safeguard a smooth start and operation of a new judicial system， which can be evidenced by the recent establishment of the circuit courts under the Supreme People’s Court of China. In 2015， the NPC will amend laws concerning vital public interests such as legislative law and food safety law and regulate and solve problems in sectors of politics， economics and society through wider channels of “rule of law.” . Maintaining Pressure on Corruption
Throughout 2014， the Chinese government combated corrupt low-ranking officials as well as senior officials， including Su Rong， Zhou Yongkang， and Ling Jihua， assuring constant “high-pressure”anti-corruption campaigns.
In accordance with the “task list” in the work report adopted by the Fifth Meeting of the Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CPC Central Committee in January 2015， not only does the anti-corruption sword point at government officials， it also targets leaders of state-owned enterprises under the jurisdiction of the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission（SASAC） of the State Council as well.
China is also intensifying its anti-corruption efforts through international cooperation. Along with the “Fox Hunt” to track and capture corrupt officials residing abroad， Chinese discipline inspection and supervision authorities have established an institution specializing in international cooperation.
The Chinese government has shown determination to sign more agreements for bilateral judicial cooperation with more countries to strike an even heavier blow to fugitive officials.
. Streamlining Administration & Delegating Power with Negative-List Concept
In 2014， the Chinese government made remarkable achievements in “subtraction，” earning wide acclaim from the public for streamlining administration and delegating power as well as canceling many administrative permits previously required for business.
Wang Guohua， professor with the Faculty of Public Administration under Huazhong University of Science and Technology， believes that “making lists” will become “new normal” for the government to accelerate its functional transformation in 2015. Greater numbers of local governments will define relevant prohibitions and limited content with “negative lists” to intensify standardization and guarantee the construction of service-oriented government.
Debates over crackdown on “tailored taxi service” in certain cities have reminded city managers to avoid enforcing the law too sweepingly. Streamlining administration and delegating power has hastened the shift of government role from “management” to “service.”
. Modern Agriculture， Farmers and Countryside
Not long ago， the Central Government again highlighted issues related to agriculture， farmers and rural areas in its Document No.1 of 2015.
Zhu Lizhi， research fellow from the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development under the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences， surmises that compared to Document No.1 last year， the Central Government has further underlined “making new efforts to beef up reform and innovation” in hopes of accelerating China’s agricultural modernization drive. Today， China has entered a “new normal” stage of economic development. Therefore， a major task is to blaze a new trail for further reinforcing the position of agriculture and promoting farmer’s increased income despite slowing economic growth. Formulas may be found in advice and suggestions of deputies to the two sessions.
. Accelerating Reform of Income Distribution
An eye-catching plan for salary system reform of administrators of enterprises under the administration of the SASAC will begin in 2015 as reform of income distribution hastens.
Multi-pronged plans will be launched such as a plan to reform both pensions for employees of public institutions and private urban employees.
Su Hainan， vice president of China Association for Labor Studies， illustrates that such combinations have served as a breakthrough point and a means for reforming the distribution system in a broad sense.
“Reform of distribution system is crucial for China to avoid the middle-income trap and reset its new drive for future development，” opines Liu Shangxi， director of the Financial Research Institute under the Ministry of Finance. In 2015， China will further deepen the reform of income distribution， including reforming individual income tax， so as to give better play to taxation， which balances the income gap.
. Ensuring Medical Care and Pensions
Livelihood issues such as reform of medical care and pension systems address people’s vital interests directly. They are therefore the greatest concerns of the public. According to plans on further reform of medical and health systems during the 12th Five-Year Plan made by the State Council， 2015 marks the final year for that round of medical and health system reform， so reform measures in areas such as drug prices and public hospitals will be put in place. Many people have shown concern for how lawmakers will break down the old mechanism highlighted by covering hospital expenses with medicine revenue.
As the aging population grows fast in China， adequately providing for the elderly has become a more pressing challenge. Consequently， proposals will be made to establish a unified basic pension insurance system for urban and rural residents， shrink the difference between rich and poor through distribution of old-age pension， and supply staff to serve the aged.
. Reform of College Entrance Exams
China embraces furthering reform of its college entrance examination system that has been carried out for approximately 40 years. Supporting plans recently promulgated one after another by the Ministry of Education show that new college entrance exams will place value on candidates’ comprehensive accomplishments rather than solely academic scores.
Yang Dongping， president of the 21st-Century Education Research Institute， predicts that 2015 will bring breakthroughs in reform of college entrance exams. “More provinces and municipalities will welcome pilot programs to end the previous practice with exam as the only factor determining the candidate’s fate，” President Yang assumes. “The introduction of academic tests and comprehensive quality assessment will supplement such exams in 2015.”
. Environmental Anticipation after “APEC Blue”
The six days of “APEC blue” on the sidelines of APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting last November in Beijing still remain fresh in the minds of local residents. However， China is once again largely engulfed in haze. Over half of the process to implement the action plan for air pollution control made by the State Council has been completed. Efforts should be enhanced to complete it in full.
Understandably， “cleaning the air” will be a hot topic for the upcoming two sessions. One of the most fundamental tasks this year for the Chinese government is to address prominent issues concerning environmental pollution such as air， water， and soil –vital interests of the citizens.
. Neighborly Diplomacy with the Belt and Road Initiatives
During visits to neighboring countries in 2013， Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the idea to construct the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. Last year witnessed the signing of agreements to form the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as well as the establishment of the Silk Road Fund. By the end of last year， the cooperative initiatives sparked excitement from more than 50 countries along the line.
The Belt and Road Initiatives， highlighted by joint consultation， co-construction， and sharing， will enter a stage of pragmatic cooperation in 2015. They will accelerate interconnection and intercommunication in Asia and weave a mutual beneficial cooperation network for better communication.
The Belt and Road Initiatives correspond to China’s neighboring diplomatic principles of amity， sincerity， mutual benefit， and inclusiveness. Despite the fact that some complex factors still remain in the relationships between China and its neighboring countries， the idea of “putting aside disputes and propelling cooperation”clearly conforms to common interests of all sides.
In March 2015， China will witness its annual “two sessions” of the National People’s Congress （NPC） and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference （CPPCC）， which will review major issues concerning the national economy and social development and promulgate a series of policies for future development in China， the world’s second largest economy.
What will be the hot topics of the two sessions？ What results do people most want to see？ We’d like to share a few of our predictions.
. Economic Reform under “New Normal”
In 2014， China saw an increase of 7.4 percent of its GDP over 2013 – the slowest growth rate in the last 24 years. Three international institutions， World Bank， International Monetary Fund， and Asian Development Bank， agree that China will further slow its pace of economic growth in 2015 due to several factors such as the deceleration of credit， loan and investment growth and cooling of the real estate market.
Despite the fact that Chinese economy has entered a “new normal” stage characterized by a shift from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth， it has undoubtedly started a more steady， sustainable transformation through structural reform.
With regards to economic reform， suggestions by deputies to the two sessions may focus on how to implement development strategy driven by innovation and how to hasten the adjustment of the economic structure.
. Accelerating “Rule of Law”
The approach of “ruling the country by law” was upgraded to a new stage at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in October 2014.
Ma Huaide， vice president of China University of Political Science and Law， asserts that 2015 will see the launch of the country’s first round of comprehensively promoting the “rule of law” campaign， which could bring measures of reform in realms of legislation， judicial administration， and law enforcement. Stress on judicial reform will safeguard a smooth start and operation of a new judicial system， which can be evidenced by the recent establishment of the circuit courts under the Supreme People’s Court of China. In 2015， the NPC will amend laws concerning vital public interests such as legislative law and food safety law and regulate and solve problems in sectors of politics， economics and society through wider channels of “rule of law.” . Maintaining Pressure on Corruption
Throughout 2014， the Chinese government combated corrupt low-ranking officials as well as senior officials， including Su Rong， Zhou Yongkang， and Ling Jihua， assuring constant “high-pressure”anti-corruption campaigns.
In accordance with the “task list” in the work report adopted by the Fifth Meeting of the Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CPC Central Committee in January 2015， not only does the anti-corruption sword point at government officials， it also targets leaders of state-owned enterprises under the jurisdiction of the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission（SASAC） of the State Council as well.
China is also intensifying its anti-corruption efforts through international cooperation. Along with the “Fox Hunt” to track and capture corrupt officials residing abroad， Chinese discipline inspection and supervision authorities have established an institution specializing in international cooperation.
The Chinese government has shown determination to sign more agreements for bilateral judicial cooperation with more countries to strike an even heavier blow to fugitive officials.
. Streamlining Administration & Delegating Power with Negative-List Concept
In 2014， the Chinese government made remarkable achievements in “subtraction，” earning wide acclaim from the public for streamlining administration and delegating power as well as canceling many administrative permits previously required for business.
Wang Guohua， professor with the Faculty of Public Administration under Huazhong University of Science and Technology， believes that “making lists” will become “new normal” for the government to accelerate its functional transformation in 2015. Greater numbers of local governments will define relevant prohibitions and limited content with “negative lists” to intensify standardization and guarantee the construction of service-oriented government.
Debates over crackdown on “tailored taxi service” in certain cities have reminded city managers to avoid enforcing the law too sweepingly. Streamlining administration and delegating power has hastened the shift of government role from “management” to “service.”
. Modern Agriculture， Farmers and Countryside
Not long ago， the Central Government again highlighted issues related to agriculture， farmers and rural areas in its Document No.1 of 2015.
Zhu Lizhi， research fellow from the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development under the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences， surmises that compared to Document No.1 last year， the Central Government has further underlined “making new efforts to beef up reform and innovation” in hopes of accelerating China’s agricultural modernization drive. Today， China has entered a “new normal” stage of economic development. Therefore， a major task is to blaze a new trail for further reinforcing the position of agriculture and promoting farmer’s increased income despite slowing economic growth. Formulas may be found in advice and suggestions of deputies to the two sessions.
. Accelerating Reform of Income Distribution
An eye-catching plan for salary system reform of administrators of enterprises under the administration of the SASAC will begin in 2015 as reform of income distribution hastens.
Multi-pronged plans will be launched such as a plan to reform both pensions for employees of public institutions and private urban employees.
Su Hainan， vice president of China Association for Labor Studies， illustrates that such combinations have served as a breakthrough point and a means for reforming the distribution system in a broad sense.
“Reform of distribution system is crucial for China to avoid the middle-income trap and reset its new drive for future development，” opines Liu Shangxi， director of the Financial Research Institute under the Ministry of Finance. In 2015， China will further deepen the reform of income distribution， including reforming individual income tax， so as to give better play to taxation， which balances the income gap.
. Ensuring Medical Care and Pensions
Livelihood issues such as reform of medical care and pension systems address people’s vital interests directly. They are therefore the greatest concerns of the public. According to plans on further reform of medical and health systems during the 12th Five-Year Plan made by the State Council， 2015 marks the final year for that round of medical and health system reform， so reform measures in areas such as drug prices and public hospitals will be put in place. Many people have shown concern for how lawmakers will break down the old mechanism highlighted by covering hospital expenses with medicine revenue.
As the aging population grows fast in China， adequately providing for the elderly has become a more pressing challenge. Consequently， proposals will be made to establish a unified basic pension insurance system for urban and rural residents， shrink the difference between rich and poor through distribution of old-age pension， and supply staff to serve the aged.
. Reform of College Entrance Exams
China embraces furthering reform of its college entrance examination system that has been carried out for approximately 40 years. Supporting plans recently promulgated one after another by the Ministry of Education show that new college entrance exams will place value on candidates’ comprehensive accomplishments rather than solely academic scores.
Yang Dongping， president of the 21st-Century Education Research Institute， predicts that 2015 will bring breakthroughs in reform of college entrance exams. “More provinces and municipalities will welcome pilot programs to end the previous practice with exam as the only factor determining the candidate’s fate，” President Yang assumes. “The introduction of academic tests and comprehensive quality assessment will supplement such exams in 2015.”
. Environmental Anticipation after “APEC Blue”
The six days of “APEC blue” on the sidelines of APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting last November in Beijing still remain fresh in the minds of local residents. However， China is once again largely engulfed in haze. Over half of the process to implement the action plan for air pollution control made by the State Council has been completed. Efforts should be enhanced to complete it in full.
Understandably， “cleaning the air” will be a hot topic for the upcoming two sessions. One of the most fundamental tasks this year for the Chinese government is to address prominent issues concerning environmental pollution such as air， water， and soil –vital interests of the citizens.
. Neighborly Diplomacy with the Belt and Road Initiatives
During visits to neighboring countries in 2013， Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the idea to construct the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. Last year witnessed the signing of agreements to form the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as well as the establishment of the Silk Road Fund. By the end of last year， the cooperative initiatives sparked excitement from more than 50 countries along the line.
The Belt and Road Initiatives， highlighted by joint consultation， co-construction， and sharing， will enter a stage of pragmatic cooperation in 2015. They will accelerate interconnection and intercommunication in Asia and weave a mutual beneficial cooperation network for better communication.
The Belt and Road Initiatives correspond to China’s neighboring diplomatic principles of amity， sincerity， mutual benefit， and inclusiveness. Despite the fact that some complex factors still remain in the relationships between China and its neighboring countries， the idea of “putting aside disputes and propelling cooperation”clearly conforms to common interests of all sides.