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现有文献更多地集中在中国要防止日本式的经济泡沫,因为存在这样的假定前提:泡沫经济破灭是日本20世纪90年代以来长期经济萧条的重要原因。把中日之间的经济增长方式、经济周期等进行比较并类推可以得出,中国具有泡沫经济的文化和制度根源。但中国现有政策更多是防止经济泡沫而非应对经济萧条,继续实施现有政策很可能会导致经济萧条。中国应当通过发展实体经济、调整汇率政策和实施新型全球化战略等来打破繁荣与萧条的怪圈。
The existing literature focuses more on the prevention of Japanese-style economic bubbles in China because of the assumption that the collapse of the bubble economy is a major cause of the long-term economic depression in Japan since the 1990s. Comparing the economic growth patterns and economic cycles between China and Japan and by analogy, it can be concluded that China has the cultural and institutional roots of a bubble economy. However, China’s existing policies are more about preventing the economic bubble than dealing with the economic depression. Continuing to implement the existing policies is likely to lead to the economic depression. China should break the cycle of prosperity and depression by developing the real economy, adjusting its exchange rate policy and implementing a new type of globalization strategy.