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在介绍产品扩散的Bass模型基础上,提出了优化模型的方法——采用粒子群算法作为Bass模型的参数估计算法。以我国移动电话用户数的扩散过程为例,采用优化的Bass模型对其扩散过程进行了深入的研究,通过结果分析得出采用采用优化的Bass模型对产品扩散进行研究效果更好。最后,对移动电话用户数的扩散过程进行预测。
Based on introducing the Bass model of product diffusion, a method of optimizing the model is proposed - using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as the parameter estimation algorithm of Bass model. Taking the diffusion process of the number of mobile phone users in China as an example, an optimized Bass model is used to study the diffusion process. The results show that it is better to use the optimized Bass model to study the product diffusion. Finally, the diffusion process of the number of mobile phone users is predicted.