一、中国财政预警系统的构架警,指的是重大经济现象,预警就是对这些重大问题的预测。显然预警不同于一般的预测研究。它是以预测为基础的一种更深层次的推广。它的目的在于通过预警系统的分析,预报出今后一段时期内(一般指一年)某一经济活动是否有异常情况出现,以及异常程度如何。中国财政预警研究是中国宏观经济预警研究的一部分,属于社会经济效益预警。所以财政预警遵循了宏观经济预警的一般构架,即确定财政警情,寻找财政警源,分析财政警兆,预报财政警度。确定财政警情是财政预警的前提。这里涉及两个问题。一是财政的警应该用什么指标反映,二 First, the structural warnings of China’s financial early warning system refer to major economic phenomena. Early warning is the prediction of these major issues. Obviously the warning is different from the general prediction research. It is a deeper level of promotion based on forecasting. Its purpose is to predict, through an analysis of the early warning system, whether there is an abnormal situation in an economic activity (generally referred to as a year) in a certain period of time in the forthcoming period and the degree of anomaly. China’s financial early warning study is part of China’s macroeconomic early warning study and is an early warning of social and economic benefits. Therefore, the financial warning follows the general framework of macroeconomic early warning, namely, determining the financial police intelligence, finding financial police sources, analyzing financial warning signs and forecasting the financial police warning level. Determining financial police intelligence is a prerequisite for financial early warning. There are two issues involved here. First, the financial police should use what indicators should be reflected, two