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1.羊与战争的胜败 1941年6月,希特勒突然向前苏联发动了袭击,苏联几乎毫无准备。9月,德军已攻占了基辅,封锁了列宁格勒。战争初期,苏军失利的主要原因之一是对德入侵时间没有搞清。苏联情报局局长戈林科夫一直认为德军近期不会入侵,甚至在6月21日(德军入侵前一天)的政治局会议上,他仍然表示“敢用脑袋担保”。他的理由是:德军要开战至少要准备600万件皮大衣,其军需部门必须大量收购羊皮,羊肉价格势必会大幅度下跌。只要德国羊肉价格大幅度下跌,就可足以说明德国要发动进攻了,而从收集的情报看并无此迹象。
1. The victory and defeat of sheep and war In June 1941, Hitler suddenly attacked the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union was almost unprepared. In September, the Germans had captured Kiev and blocked Leningrad. In the early days of the war, one of the main reasons for the defeat of the Soviet Union was the lack of clarity about the time of the German invasion. The Soviet intelligence commissioner Gorinkov always believed that the Germans would not invade in the near future. Even at the Politburo meeting on June 21st (the day before the German invasion), he still stated that he “dare to use his head for guarantees.” His reason is: At least 6 million leather coats must be prepared for the Germans to go to war. The military division must purchase sheepskins in large quantities, and the price of lamb meat is bound to fall significantly. As long as the price of German mutton fell sharply, it would be enough to show that Germany is going to launch an attack. From the information collected, there is no sign of this.