文章以指数平滑法、ARIMA预测方法和灰色理论系统预测方法为基础构造等权组合预测模型应用于石化原材料价格的预测实践,通过从预测值、预测误差值和预测误差评价值等方面对等权组合预测效果与单项预测方法进行分析比较,说明采用等权组合预测可达到提高预测精度、改善预测结果的目的。 Based on exponential smoothing method, ARIMA forecasting method and gray theory system forecasting method, this paper constructs an equal-weight portfolio forecasting model to predict the price of petrochemical raw materials. By comparing the forecasting value, forecasting error and forecasting error, The combined forecasting effect and the single forecasting method are analyzed and compared, which shows that the combination forecasting can achieve the goal of improving forecast accuracy and forecasting result.