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一、实施概要毫无疑问,今后美国将会经历一次破坏性地震。问题是这种地震将于何时在何地发生,会造成多大的破坏。研究结果表明,今后30年内在加州南部圣安德烈斯断层上发生一次里氏7.5级以上地震的概率为60%,而位于旧金山湾地区的圣安德烈斯断层或海沃德断层在同一时期内发生一次 M≥7地震的概率为50%。据最近的研究估计,在2000年之前,美国中部新马德里断层上发生一次里氏6.0级地震的概率为40—63%。如在1987年惠蒂尔海峡中等地震的重大破坏中所看到的,任何这类地震的冲击
I. Summary of Implementation There is no doubt that the United States will experience a devastating earthquake in the future. The question is how much damage the earthquake will take when and where it will occur. The results show that there is a 60% probability that an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 and above occurred on the San Andrés Fault in southern California over the next 30 years, while the San Andres and Hayward faults in the San Francisco Bay area are identical The probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes occurred within a period of 50%. According to recent studies, the probability of a magnitude 6.0 Ms 6.0 earthquake occurring in the Central America’s New Madrid Fault before the year 2000 was 40-63%. As can be seen in the great destruction of the moderately large Whittier Strait in 1987, the impact of any such earthquake