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通过建立上海市环境经济CGE模型,模拟了上海市排污费征收标准调整政策出台后对经济和主要大气污染物减排的影响以及与其它相关政策的协同效应。结果表明,不同的排污费调整政策情景均对GDP有一定的负面效应,2020年GDP损失约0.054%~0.095%,收费标准越高,负面影响越大,其中,受影响最大的为高耗能高排放的行业,但对电厂来说,在一系列补贴政策的激励下脱硫脱硝取得了重大进展,企业所负担的成本得到了有效缓解,降低了排污费调整带来的负面影响。排污收费标准提高产生的减排效果非常显著,如果所有的工业行业排放均按新的排放标准进行阶梯收费,2020年SO_2相对基准情景的减排率可达27.0%~36.2%,NO_x的减排率可达20.1%~29.6%,将会对实现“十三五”减排目标发挥非常重要的作用。结合实证研究结论,进一步围绕如何更好地发挥排污收费政策的作用提出了相关政策建议。
Through the establishment of the CGE model of Shanghai’s environmental economy, this paper simulates the impact of Shanghai’s emission tax collection standard adjustment policy on the economic and major air pollutant emission reductions and synergies with other relevant policies. The results show that all the different policies of sewage charges adjustment policies have some negative effects on GDP, with a GDP loss of about 0.054% -0.095% in 2020. The higher the charging standard, the greater the negative impact, of which the most affected are high energy consumption However, for power plants, great progress has been made in desulphurization and denitrification under the encouragement of a series of subsidy policies. As a result, the costs borne by enterprises have been effectively alleviated and the negative impact brought by the adjustment of sewage charges has been reduced. If all industrial emissions are based on the new emission standard, the emission reduction rate will reach 27.0% ~ 36.2% in 2020, and the emission reduction of NO_x The rate of 20.1% ~ 29.6%, will be to achieve “13 ” emission reduction targets to play a very important role. Combining with the conclusion of empirical research, this paper puts forward some related policy recommendations on how to better play the role of sewage charging policy.