提出了作物温度适宜性评价函数和生产潜力计算模型 ,并在田间试验和统计分析的基础上 ,确定了水稻的相关参数 ,分析了气候条件及其变化对长江三角洲地区水稻生育期温度适宜性和生产潜力的影响 .结果表明 ,由于气候变化 ,特别是温度条件的变化 ,使得早稻移栽分蘖期和灌浆成熟期、晚稻抽穗开花期和灌浆成熟期的温度条件有了很大改善 ,从温度适宜性评价的平均值变化来看 ,1981～ 1997年分别比 195 1～ 1980年提高了 11.1% ,5 .2 % ,13.4%和 13.2 % .从生产潜力来看 ,除了早稻光温生产潜力有明显增加外 ,早稻光能生产潜力和晚稻的光能、光温生产潜力均呈下降趋势 ,但是自 80年代以来 ,生产潜力的下降趋势减弱 Based on field experiments and statistical analysis, the related parameters of rice were determined, and the effects of climatic conditions and their changes on the temperature suitability of rice in the Yangtze River Delta region, The results showed that the temperature conditions at the tillering and filling stages of early rice transplanting and the heading and flowering and filling maturity of late rice had been greatly improved due to the changes of climate, From the perspective of production potential, except for the potential of light and temperature production in early rice, there was a significant increase of 11.1%, 5.2%, 13.4% and 13.2% respectively from 1981 to 1997 , The light potential productivity of early rice and that of late rice showed a downward trend, but the downward trend of production potential weakened since the 1980s