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2010年以来,中国国内经济增速逐步走缓,GDP同比维持小幅下行的态势;2012年一季度GDP降至8.1%,二季度更是降至7.6%;最新出炉的8月份中国制造业物价指数PMI为49.2%,环比下降0.9个百分点,自2011年11月以来首次跌破50%,创下9个月新低;此外,PPI降幅再超预期,同比下降3.5%,环比下降0.5%,创34个月新低。这些数据,让人们不可避免地对目前的经济形势产生深层次联想。未来经济形势将走向何方?我认为,对未来经济形势的预期,过于悲观或过于乐观都不客观。首先,完全看空中国经济的悲观观点并非实事求是的长远眼光。事实上,经济下滑是符合经济周期规律的。从世界视野来看,历数20世纪的几件大事:1 949年美国二战后期短暂繁荣之后突然爆发的金融危机、1973年前后第一
Since 2010, China’s domestic economic growth has gradually slowed down, while GDP maintained a slight downward trend year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2012, GDP dropped to 8.1% and dropped to 7.6% in the second quarter. The latest China Manufacturing Price Index PMI was 49.2%, down 0.9 pts QoQ and below the 50% for the first time since November 2011, setting a 9-month low. In addition, the PPI fell more-than-expected, down 3.5% YoY and down 0.5% QoQ to 34 Month low. These data make people inevitably have deep associations with the current economic situation. Future economic situation will go? In my opinion, the expected future economic situation, too pessimistic or too optimistic is not objective. First of all, it is not the long-term view of seeking truth from facts that the pessimistic viewpoint of completely ignoring the Chinese economy. In fact, the economic downturn is in line with the laws of the economic cycle. From a global perspective, there are several major events in the 20th century: the sudden financial crisis that erupted after the brief boom of the United States in the late World War II in 1949, and the first in 1973