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一、引 言 利用统计公式估算台风潮极值,可以作为台风潮预报的参考依据。因而在我们目前的预报值班程序中,利用各站的极值预报公式估算实际台风的可能增水极值,已成为一个正常步骤,目前采用的统计公式大多形如〔1〕: △H=C_0+C_1△P 式中:△H为增水值,△P为最大增水时刻的本站气压下降量。因为难以得到△P的实时观测值,所以一般采用公式: △P=（1008-P_0 ）（1-exp~（-0.64/r））来估算△P,式中:P_0为台风中心气压,r为台风中心距测站距离。 依据上述公式,收集某测站历史上发生过的台风潮样本△H_i及相应的△P_i即可确定待定系数——C_0及C_1,从而构造出△H随△P变化的一元台风潮预报公式。 上述回归模型对大多数测站的台风潮极值估算都能得到令人满意的结果,但对个别测站
I. INTRODUCTION The use of statistical formulas to estimate typhoon extreme values can serve as a reference for the forecast of typhoon wave. Therefore, it is a normal step to estimate the possible maximum water extremes of actual typhoon by using the extreme value prediction formula of each station in our current forecasting duty process. Most of the statistical formulas adopted at present adopt the form of [1]: ΔH = C_0 + C_1 △ P Where: △ H is the value of water increase, △ P is the pressure drop of the station at the time of maximum water increase. Because it is difficult to obtain the real-time observation of ΔP, it is generally estimated that ΔP is based on the formula: ΔP = (1008-P_0) (1-exp ~ (-0.64 / r)) where P_0 is the typhoon center pressure, r For the typhoon center distance from the station. Based on the above formula, the typhoon tide samples ΔH_i and the corresponding ΔP_i that occurred in the history of a station can be collected to determine the undetermined coefficients - C_0 and C_1, so as to construct the forecast formula of the monotonic typhoon ΔH with ΔP. The above regression model can obtain satisfactory results for typhoon extreme value estimation of most stations, but for individual stations