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在经济转型与结构调整带来经济增速下滑的大背景下,财政可持续性问题重新引起了人们的担忧。在简单理论分析基础上,本文采用1995-2015年省级面板数据,考察地方政府政绩诉求、税收竞争与财政可持续性之间的内在经济逻辑。研究结果表明:地方政府以追逐GDP为核心的政绩诉求行为,以及相伴而生的地方政府之间横向的税收竞争改善了地方政府财政可持续性,失业率的上升则弱化了财政可持续性;进一步研究发现,税收竞争与地方政府政绩诉求两个变量之间的相互作用对财政可持续性具有显著影响,税收竞争强化了失业率对财政可持续性的负向影响,弱化了经济增长速度对财政可持续性的改善作用,强化了人均财政盈余对财政可持续性的正向影响。
Given the economic downturn brought by economic restructuring and structural adjustment, the issue of fiscal sustainability has rekindled people’s concern. Based on a simple theoretical analysis, this paper uses provincial panel data from 1995 to 2015 to examine the inherent economic logic between local governments’ performance demands, tax competition and fiscal sustainability. The results show that local government pursues GDP as the core of the performance demands, and the accompanying horizontal tax competition between local governments has improved the financial sustainability of local governments, while the rise of the unemployment rate has weakened the financial sustainability; Further study found that the interaction between the two variables of tax competition and local government performance demands had a significant impact on fiscal sustainability. Tax competition strengthened the negative impact of unemployment on fiscal sustainability and weakened the rate of economic growth The improvement of fiscal sustainability has strengthened the positive impact of per capita fiscal surpluses on fiscal sustainability.