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经济的快速发展是碳排放的主要驱动因素。为解释中国经济增长与碳排放量的关系,文章引用碳排放量分解模型,对中国1978-2009年碳排放量进行较为精确的测算,并分析碳排放的趋势及其特点。在此基础上,采用灰色相对关联度方法,分阶段测算不同历史时期下经济发展与碳排放量的关联度。结果表明:从碳排放的增长速度上看,1996-2003年,碳排放增速最慢,2003-2009年碳排放增速最快。从经济增长与碳排放的关联度上看,1996-2003年经济发展与碳排放的关联度最大,1978-1996年经济发展与碳排放的关联度最小。文章进而解释了中国不同历史阶段经济增长与碳排放之间存在差异的原因,并提出减少碳排放的对策建议。
The rapid economic development is the main driver of carbon emissions. To explain the relationship between China’s economic growth and carbon emissions, this paper refers to the carbon emission decomposition model to make a more accurate estimation of China’s carbon emissions in 1978-2009 and analyzes the trends and characteristics of carbon emissions. On this basis, the relative degree of gray correlation method is used to calculate the correlation between economic development and carbon emissions in different historical periods by stages. The results show that from the perspective of the growth rate of carbon emissions, the growth rate of carbon emissions is the slowest from 1996 to 2003, and the carbon emissions increase fastest from 2003 to 2009. From the perspective of the correlation between economic growth and carbon emissions, the correlation between economic development and carbon emissions was the largest in 1996-2003, and the correlation between economic development and carbon emissions was the smallest in 1978-1996. The article then explains why there are differences between economic growth and carbon emissions in different historical periods in China and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for reducing carbon emissions.