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分析了影响泥石流灾害生命损失的4个主要因素,包括泥石流强度、泥石流发生时间、风险人口脆弱性和泥石流警报时间。在目前研究的基础上,将泥石流灾害生命损失风险定义为一次泥石流灾害发生概率与其可能造成的潜在死亡人数的乘积,初步建立了泥石流灾害生命损失风险评价模型。根据2003年四川省两次泥石流灾害的有限数据,评估了泥石流灾害造成的生命损失风险,预测结果与实际数据有一定差异,主要原因是风险人口数据的准确性有待提高。
Four main factors affecting the life loss of debris flow disaster were analyzed, including the intensity of debris flow, the occurrence time of debris flow, the vulnerability of risk population and the alarm time of debris flow. Based on the current research, the risk of life-loss of debris flow disaster is defined as the product of the probability of occurrence of a debris flow disaster and its potential death toll, and the risk assessment model of the loss of life from debris flow disaster is preliminarily established. According to the limited data of two debris flows in Sichuan Province in 2003, the risk of life loss caused by debris flow disaster is assessed. The forecast result is different from the actual data. The main reason is that the accuracy of risky population data needs to be improved.