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众多研究表明收入分配格局会影响国民储蓄率,由于部门边际储蓄倾向的不同,企业和政府部门相对于居民部门在总体分配格局中占比的上升会提高国民储蓄率,造成事实上的“国富民穷”。本文利用1978～2007年中国省际面板数据,研究了由市场化改革和对外开放政策所引发的中国国民收入分配格局的变化及其对中国国民储蓄率的影响。研究发现,在收入分配格局受制于巨大社会经济结构变迁的制度约束下,中国收入分配格局的变化能够很好的解释国民储蓄率的变化,而政府储蓄行为的变化对近期国民储蓄率上升具有重要的解释力。本文的估计结果对替代性宏观收入分配格局变量的选取、估计方法的选择及样本区间的选择都是稳健的,由市场化改革引致的宏观收入分配格局变化的储蓄效应非常显著。
Numerous studies show that the pattern of income distribution will affect the national saving rate. Due to the different marginal propensity to save in the sector, the rise in the share of enterprises and government departments relative to the resident sector in the overall distribution pattern will raise the national saving rate, resulting in a de facto “ Rich people poor. ” Based on the panel data of China from 1978 to 2007, this paper studies the changes of China’s national income distribution pattern caused by the market-oriented reform and opening-up policies and its impact on the national saving rate of China. The study finds that the change of income distribution pattern in China can explain the change of national saving rate well under the restriction of income distribution pattern subject to the change of huge socio-economic structure. The change of government saving behavior is important to the recent rise of national saving rate Explanatory power. The results of this paper are robust to the selection of alternative macroeconomic income distribution variables, the selection of estimation methods and the selection of sample intervals. The saving effect of macroeconomic distribution changes caused by market-oriented reforms is very significant.