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利用东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统预测分析了黑龙江省1971-2006年各年热量年型,计算了哈尔滨市1984-2006年玉米抽雄期的冷害发生概率,同时采用以5-9月平均温度和的距平作为低温冷害指标的方法计算了1971-2006年低温冷害的发生状况。结果显示,上述两种方法计算得到的低温冷害的年份与历史实况基本相符。通过对比分析发现,有81%的年份两种方法计算的结果一致,且在低温年玉米抽雄期的冷害发生概率均较大,说明东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统在黑龙江省的应用效果较好,可为防灾减灾提供科学参考。
Based on predicting and forecasting system of northeast maize chilling injury monitoring and forecasting, the annual calorific value of Heilongjiang Province from 1971 to 2006 was calculated and the chilling injury probability of Harbin during tasseling stage was calculated from 1984 to 2006. At the same time, the average temperature from May to September As an indicator of chilling damage, the occurrence of chilling injury in 1971-2006 was calculated. The results show that the above two methods calculate the chilling damage of the year and the historical live in line with the basic. Through comparative analysis, it is found that there are 81% of the two years of the two methods are consistent, and the probability of chilling injury during the tasseling stage of maize during the low temperature are larger, indicating that the monitoring and forecast system of maize chilling injury in Northeast China has a good application effect in Heilongjiang Province, It can provide scientific reference for disaster prevention and mitigation.