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目的预测2005年各季度医院门诊量。方法对1999年3季度至2004年2季度的季度门诊量,应用哑变量多重回归预测法进行分析。结果预测出医院2005年四季度门诊量为51492、55330、58262、57362。结论运用哑变量多重回归预测法避免长期趋势变动,周期变动,其预测值与实际值相对误差小,处于控制状态,为医院统筹安排医疗工作提供可靠依据。
Objective To predict hospital outpatient visits in each quarter of 2005. Methods From the third quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2004, the number of outpatient visits was analyzed using the dummy variable multiple regression prediction method. The results predicted hospital outpatient services in the fourth quarter of 2005 were 51,492,553,30,582,62,57,362. Conclusion The use of dummies multiple regression prediction method to avoid changes in long-term trends, cycle changes, the relative error between the predicted value and the actual value is small, in a controlled state, to provide a reliable basis for hospitals to arrange medical work.