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针对传统D-S证据理论存在鲁棒性差与“一票否决”等问题,提出采用加权融合法优化D-S证据理论,以提高其在大坝安全评价应用中的可靠性。首先对原始监测数据进行标准化及归一化处理;然后用欧氏距离确定权重,利用各监测项目间的内在联系进行D-S证据融合;最后根据加权融合结果对西溪水库大坝进行安全评价。结果表明,大坝整体的安全与较安全指标概率赋值达0.527,远大于较不安全指标0.049,大坝处于安全状态;坝基渗流较不安全概率赋值达0.492,存在一定的渗流安全隐患,融合评价结果与工程实际相符合,说明该方法可如实反映大坝的安全状况。
In view of the poor robustness and “one-vote veto” of the traditional D-S evidence theory, a weighted fusion method is proposed to optimize D-S evidence theory to improve its reliability in dam safety assessment. Firstly, the original monitoring data is normalized and normalized. Then the Euclidean distance is used to determine the weight, and the D-S evidence fusion is made by using the internal relations among the monitoring items. Finally, the safety evaluation of Xixi Reservoir Dam is carried out based on the weighted fusion results. The results show that the overall safety and safety index of the dam is assigned a probability of 0.527 which is much larger than the unsafe index of 0.049 and the dam is in a safe state. The unsafe probability of infiltration of a dam foundation is 0.492, which may cause potential safety hazard of seepage. The results are consistent with the actual project, indicating that the method can accurately reflect the safety status of the dam.