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本文提出了黄河上游四——六月的径流量不是以降水为主的观点。指出前期的退水(文中称“基流”),冬、春雪,冬、春温,前期流量,退水系数等可作为预报因子。应用概率统计方法(主要是回归分析和时间序列分析),进行了预报的探讨和研究,在理论上和计算实践上提出了一些见介和看法。对81、82、83年进行了试报,着重介绍了82年4—6月径流预报的尝试。对今后怎样继续作好这项工作提出了看法。
This paper proposes that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River from April to June is not dominated by precipitation. It is pointed out that the early stage of backwater (referred to as “base flow” in the text), winter, spring snow, winter, spring temperature, early stage flow and backwater coefficient can be used as predictors. Probability and statistics methods (mainly regression analysis and time series analysis) are used to conduct the forecasting and research, and some suggestions and opinions are put forward theoretically and practically. The trial was carried out in 81, 82 and 83 years, focusing on the attempt of runoff forecast from April to June in 1982. The views on how to continue doing this work in the future are put forward.