大坝变形监测是大坝安全监测中最重要的项目之一。由于大坝变形受到各种外界因素的影响,变形情况非常复杂,预测的准确性对大坝的安全评估起着重要作用。因此,对大坝变形分析预报方法的选择显得尤为重要。该文介绍了统计模型和神经网络模型,提出将BP神经网络方法与统计方法结合的方法。用这两种方法对某大坝位移监测数据进行分析,并对未来变形值进行预报,取得了一定的效果。 Dam deformation monitoring is one of the most important projects in dam safety monitoring. Because the deformation of the dam is affected by various external factors, the deformation is very complicated, and the accuracy of the prediction plays an important role in the dam safety assessment. Therefore, the choice of dam deformation analysis and forecasting method is particularly important. This paper introduces statistical models and neural network models, and proposes a method combining BP neural network with statistical methods. Using these two methods to analyze the displacement monitoring data of a dam, and forecast the future deformation value, and achieved some results.