本文提出了一种海上油田开发工程经济评价及其不确定性和风险分析的计算模型。朋传统的分析方法和概率分析方法结合一个例子编制计算机程序对经济指标和风险值进行了计算,并对参数处理作了探讨。如将相关参数变量作线性相关处理,则得到的结果偏于保守;参数的概率分布一般可取三角形分布,其结果与正态分布非常接近。 This paper presents a calculation model for the economic evaluation of offshore oilfield development projects and its uncertainty and risk analysis. Peng traditional analytical methods and probabilistic analysis methods combined with an example of the preparation of computer programs on the economic indicators and risk values ​​were calculated and the parameters were discussed. If the relevant parameters of variables for linear correlation, the results obtained are somewhat conservative; the probability distribution of the parameter is generally desirable triangular distribution, the result is very close to the normal distribution.