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针对危机之前各国国内宏观经济环境以及各国间贸易和金融联系是否与危机严重程度存在系统相关性这一问题,文章共收集了全球主要87个国家与地区2003～2009年相关指标的数据,使用多指标多因素模型进行实证检验。发现对于危机之前人均收入水平更高、信贷市场扩张更快、经常项目赤字更大和贸易开放度更高的国家,经济危机的程度也更为严重,在跨国传染因素中发现贸易联系的传染效应要比金融市场联系的传染效应更强。
In response to the question of whether the domestic macroeconomic environment in various countries before the crisis and whether the trade and financial links among countries are systematically related to the severity of the crisis, this article collected data on related indicators from 2003 to 2009 in 87 major countries and regions. Multi-factor model for empirical test. Found that countries with higher per capita income levels, faster credit market expansion, more current account deficits and more open trade enjoyed greater levels of economic crisis before the crisis, and that the contagion effect of trade links was more pronounced in transnational factors Infectious effects of financial market linkages are stronger.