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国际技术转移对于后发国家企业的技术能力追赶起着重要的作用。本文研究东欧和中亚国家多个企业技术能力的动态演进过程,并探讨国外技术对企业技术能力发展的影响作用。不同于以往文献中案例研究的分析方法,本研究提出潜在转换分析(LTA)的计量经济方法探讨大量企业技术能力演进的进程,拓展了研究对象的范围。该模型测算出企业技术能力发展的三个动态阶段,研究发现企业技术能力的发展存在粘滞现象,所以他们向更高阶段的发展需要有意识努力和策略。在不同的国际技术转移渠道中,直接技术来源对企业技术能力的发展更为重要,尤其是技术许可和进口中间投入显著促进技术能力处于中低阶段的企业向高级阶段转移升级,FDI对于处于低水平技术能力的企业发展更为重要,而出口对企业技术能力发展的作用并不显著。
International technology transfer plays an important role in catching up with the technological capabilities of late-stage countries. This paper studies the dynamic evolution of technological capabilities of multiple enterprises in Eastern and Central Asian countries and explores the impact of foreign technologies on the development of technological capabilities of enterprises. Different from the case studies in previous literature, this study proposes the econometric method of latent transformational analysis (LTA) to explore the process of a large number of enterprises’ technological capabilities evolution and expand the scope of the research object. The model calculates three dynamic stages of the development of technological capabilities of enterprises. The study finds that the development of technological capabilities of enterprises is viscous, so they need conscious efforts and strategies toward higher stages of development. In different channels of international technology transfer, the direct source of technology is more important for the development of technological capabilities of enterprises. In particular, the intermediation of technology licensing and imports significantly promotes the upgrading and upgrading of enterprises with medium and low technological capabilities in the middle and low stages to advanced stages. The development of enterprises with horizontal technical capabilities is more important, and the role of exports in the development of technological capabilities of enterprises is not significant.