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本文从我国近20年的货币供给变化入手,分析其变化趋势和结构性特征,应用经典货币数量理论得到了影响货币超发的四个因素,并同世界主要发达、发展中国家对比印证了我国货币确实存在超发这一结论。然后,探讨货币超发与资产价格的关系,进一步研究货币超发对股票市场的影响,并通过经济基本面和市场估值两个维度,论证了货币超发对经济转型期的中国股市可能存在结构性投资机会的结论。
This article starts from the change of money supply in our country in the past 20 years and analyzes its changing trend and structural characteristics. By using the theory of classical money quantity, we get the four factors that affect the excess of money. Compared with the major developed and developing countries in the world, There is indeed a super-currency conclusion. Then, it explores the relationship between super-over-currency and asset price, further studies the influence of super-over-currency on the stock market, and demonstrates that over-sending of money may exist in China’s stock market during the economic transition through two dimensions of economic fundamentals and market valuation Conclusion of structured investment opportunities.