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基于全寿命周期管理的理念,提出了风力发电全寿命周期减排效益估算方法;通过引入区间数理论来处理存在的不确定性问题,构建了风力发电项目全寿命周期节能减排效益的区间数模型。该模型可解决许多不确定因素的干扰,为决策者计算风力发电提供更为可靠的决策依据。算例中,结合内蒙某百万千瓦级风电场的实际工程建设和预测运行数据,与选取的600 MW火力发电工程项目在节能减排效益方面进行了对标分析,并对风力发电量和风电建设总投资2个指标进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,风力发电技术在CO2减排方面较燃煤发电技术具有更好的环境效益,且总投资对减排成本的增加值影响较大,而年发电量对减排量比较敏感。
Based on the concept of life-cycle management, a method to estimate the lifetime benefit of wind power generation is put forward. By introducing interval number theory to deal with the existing uncertainties, the interval number of energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits of wind power generation project model. The model can solve the interference of many uncertainties and provide a more reliable decision-making basis for decision-makers to calculate wind power. In the example, based on the actual construction and forecasting operation data of a million-kilowatt wind farms in Inner Mongolia, the selected 600 MW thermal power generation projects were benchmarked in terms of energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits. Wind power generation and wind power The two indicators of total investment in construction were analyzed for sensitivity. The results show that wind power generation technology has better environmental benefits than coal-fired power generation technology in reducing CO2 emissions, and the total investment has a greater impact on the added value of emission reduction costs, while annual power generation is more sensitive to emission reductions.