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2011年8月天然橡胶市场走势基本符合预期,在合成橡胶支撑力度弱化的情况下天然橡胶市场呈现调整走势,不过美国信用评级意外下调带来的冲击略微超出预期,沪胶市场下调幅度较大,但月底沪胶指数跌幅被大幅修正,8月沪胶市场走势整体依旧呈高位宽幅震荡格局。9月天然橡胶市场表现可能略好于8月,对美国出台新的经济复苏刺激政策的预期可能成为市场较大的提振因素,国内轮胎行业的形势略有改善;9月是台风和多雨季节,天然橡胶供应压力未显现,国内天然橡胶库存量仍处于历史同期较低水平。综合来看,9月的天然橡胶市场将继续受到金融属性的拖累,但在国外宽松政策的预期和天然橡胶基本面压力不明显的情况下,预计9月沪胶市场或呈现一定幅度修复性回升,下方支撑价位32500元,上方阻力价位36000元。
In August 2011, the natural rubber market basically met the expectation. The natural rubber market showed a trend of adjustment under the weakening of the synthetic rubber support. However, the unexpected impact of the unexpected downgrade of the U.S. credit rating exceeded the expectation slightly. The Hujiao market recorded a large downward adjustment, However, the Hujiao index fell by the end of the month was substantially revised in August Hujiao market trend is still a wide pattern of high volatility. September natural rubber market may be slightly better than in August, the United States promulgated a new stimulus package of economic stimulus may be a larger market boost factor, the domestic tire industry a slight improvement in the situation; September is the typhoon and rainy season , Natural rubber supply pressure did not appear, the domestic natural rubber stocks are still in the same period of history lower level. Taken together, the natural rubber market in September will continue to be dragged down by financial attributes. However, given the expected easing of foreign policies and the obvious pressure from the fundamentals of natural rubber, it is expected that the market for Hujiao rubber will show a certain degree of recovery in September , Below the support price 32,500 yuan, 36000 yuan above the resistance level.