论文部分内容阅读
我国1978—2006年期间的对外贸易格局,以1992年外贸体制改革为界,可分内资主导的一般贸易和外资主导的加工贸易两个不同阶段,本文主旨在于探讨这种外贸格局转变对我国经济增长的影响及其政策涵义。结果显示,GDP和出口在1978—1992年期间存在双向因果关系,在1992—2006年期间存在GDP至出口的单向因果关系;GDP和进口在1978—1992年期间存在GDP至进口的单向因果关系,在1992—2006年期间存在双向因果关系。研究结论的经济学涵义表明,我国外贸格局正由出口驱动型经济增长向经济增长驱动型出口转变,进口驱动型经济增长格局逐渐形成。这也意味着,“十二五”期间,我国外贸包括出口、进口规模将会进一步扩张,但规模扩张的内在张力正在发生根本性转变。因此,为外贸可持续性发展,应进一步推动出口增长方式转变,建立进出口平衡增长机制,完善我国开放型商务管理体制。
During 1978-2006, the pattern of foreign trade in our country was based on the 1992 foreign trade system reform. It can be divided into two stages: domestic trade-led general trade and foreign-capital-led processing trade. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the changes in the foreign trade pattern to China’s economy The Impact of Growth and Its Policy Implications. The results show that there is a two-way causal relationship between GDP and exports during the period 1978-1992 and a one-way causal link between GDP and exports between 1992 and 2006; one-way causal link between GDP and imports during the period 1978-1992 Relations, there was a two-way causal relationship between 1992-2006. The economic implications of the conclusion of the study show that the pattern of China’s foreign trade is changing from an export-driven economy to an economy-driven economy and an import-driven pattern of economic growth is gradually taking shape. This also means that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China’s foreign trade will be further expanded, including its exports and imports. However, the fundamental tension in scale expansion is undergoing a fundamental change. Therefore, for the sustainable development of foreign trade, we should further promote the change in the mode of export growth, establish a balanced growth mechanism for import and export, and improve our open business management system.