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从众多经济指标中选取了固定资产投资的先行、一致指标组,利用所选择的指标基于状态空间模型,采用Kalman滤波估计方法得到了固定资产投资的一致和先行SWI景气指数.对一致指数的分析表明,自1998年以来我国固定资产投资经历了蓬勃扩张的投资长周期和两轮振荡波动的投资短周期,从2008年开始在国际金融危机蔓延和我国经济结构调整的大背景下固定资产投资进入相对平稳增长期.通过对先行合成指数的分析,认为“十二五”期间投资将保持稳定增长,出现大起大落的可能性很小.
Based on the selected state variables and the state space model, the consistent and pre-emptive SWI sentiment index of fixed assets investment is obtained by using Kalman filter estimation method from many economic indicators. Shows that since 1998, China’s fixed asset investment has undergone a booming expansion of the investment cycle and two rounds of short-term fluctuations in investment volatility. Since 2008, with the spread of the international financial crisis and the readjustment of China’s economic structure, investment in fixed assets Relatively steady growth period.By analyzing the leading composite index, it is considered that the investment during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will maintain a steady growth and there is very little possibility of large ups and downs.