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超短期预报调度对于实现短期调度和实时调度无缝衔接、降低调度风险、提高水电调度水平意义重大。而实际超短期预报调度面临着有效预报信息短缺、实时采集信息错报漏报、支流小水电调节、模型通用性差等一系列问题,为此,提出了一种梯级水电站群超短期滞时时间序列预报方法,首先分析了上游电站历史出库和下游电站历史入库流量,利用相关系数找出最强滞时流量匹配关系,从而将上游电站出库流量从下游电站入库中分解出来,还原出有效的区间流量,再通过区间流量逐日化进行时间序列建模,最后与上游电站滞时出库合成为下游电站预报入库流量。以云南澜沧江干流梯级电站为例,取得了良好的预测效果,从而验证了该方法的合理性、准确性与通用性。
Ultra-short-term forecasting scheduling for short-term scheduling and real-time scheduling seamless convergence, reduce scheduling risk and improve the level of hydropower dispatch is of great significance. However, the actual short-term forecast scheduling is faced with a series of problems such as the shortage of effective forecast information, the omission of false information in real-time collection of information, the adjustment of tributary SHP, and the poor universality of models. Therefore, an ultrashort time series According to the forecasting method, the historical outflow of the upstream power station and the historical inbound flow of the downstream power station are analyzed, and the correlation coefficient is used to find out the matching relationship of the strongest time lag flow, so that the outbound flow of the upstream power station is decomposed out of the storage of the downstream power station, Effective interval flow, and then flow through the interval of day-to-day modeling of the time series, and finally out of the reservoir with the delay of the upstream synthesis of the downstream station for the forecast flow of storage. Taking the Lancang River cascade hydropower station in Yunnan as an example, a good prediction result has been obtained, which verifies the rationality, accuracy and universality of this method.