论文部分内容阅读
基于1997-2013年省级面板数据,实证检验了中国财政宏观政策在发挥经济稳定功能中的实际效应。研究结果显示:(1)中国宏观经济呈现出明显的周期性特征;(2)现行财政宏观政策并未有效发挥经济稳定作用,即财政收入政策只在一定程度上发挥了物价稳定和防止通胀的功能,而支出政策的经济稳定功能也只体现在经济产出增长方面;(3)进一步分周期波动阶段分析表明,研究结论具有稳健性。因此,要充分有效发挥财政宏观政策的经济稳定功能,需要深化财政体制以及相应的经济体制改革。同时,不能过度依赖宏观调控,应该重视社会主义市场经济体制中微观制度安排的完善。
Based on the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2013, the paper empirically tests the actual effect of China’s fiscal macro-policies in giving full play to their economic stability. The results show that: (1) China’s macroeconomy shows obvious periodic characteristics; (2) The current fiscal macroeconomic policy does not effectively play an economic stabilizing role. That is, the fiscal revenue policy only plays a role in stabilizing prices and preventing inflation Function, while the economic stabilization function of the expenditure policy is only reflected in the economic output growth; (3) The analysis of the further sub-period fluctuation shows that the conclusion of the study is robust. Therefore, in order to fully and effectively bring into full play the economic stabilization function of the fiscal macro-policy, it is necessary to deepen the reform of the financial system and the corresponding economic system. At the same time, we should not over-rely on macroeconomic regulation and control and should pay attention to improving the micro-institutional arrangements in the socialist market economic system.