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为了给港湾式公交站的设计与管理提供参考,针对公交车运行时间对港湾式公交站能力产生影响的问题,首先采用全过程时间分析方法,将车站区域的运行过程分为5个阶段,使用概率论方法分析了重返延误与机动车车头时距之间的关系;在此基础上,考虑泊位的清空时间,基于M/M/c排队模型给出公交车站排队溢出概率的计算方法;最后从排队溢出及泊位利用率的角度改进了经典的车站能力模型,并对数值算例结果进行了曲线拟合。研究结果表明:港湾式公交站能力随公交车到达率的增大呈指数增长趋势;随乘车人数的增加呈幂函数下降趋势;车站能力与重返延误的关系符合二次函数的波动规律,当公交车到达率较低时,能力随重返延误的增大有所下降,此后溢出概率的增大对能力的影响更为明显,车站能力将随重返延误的增加而增加。
In order to provide a reference for the design and management of harbor bus stations, aiming at the problem that bus running time has an impact on the capacity of harbor bus stations, the whole process time analysis method is used to divide the operation process of station areas into five stages. Based on this, considering the emptying time of berths, the calculation method of bus station overflow probability is given based on M / M / c queuing model. Finally, the classic station capacity model is improved from the perspective of queuing overflow and berth utilization, and the curve fitting of the numerical example is carried out. The results show that: the capacity of harbor bus stops increases exponentially with the increase of bus arrival rate; the power function decreases with the increase of number of passengers; the relationship between train station capacity and return delay agrees with the fluctuation law of quadratic function, When the arrival rate of buses is low, the capacity decreases with the increase of delay of re-entry. After that, the increase of probability of overflow has more obvious impact on capacity, and the capacity of stations will increase with the delay of re-entry.